Scout Shorts: Red Zone Woes; Skill Emergence; Wild Libertyville-Lake Zurich Game
Happy Monday everyone. Final thoughts on Week 6 and early look ahead to Friday road game at Lake Zurich:
Red zone offense might be the hardest part of football. As a coach/fan/writer of all levels of football––youth, prep, college, pro––finishing drives inside the 20-yard line is what separates championship teams from playoff teams; three-win teams from five-or-six-victory seasons. Red zone offense is comparable to the runners-in-scoring-position stat in baseball. The best teams find ways to make contact with a baserunner on third and less than two outs. Losing teams make infield outs or whiff (hello, Cubs September baseball). When examining the Scouts’ two losses this season, we can look at inefficient red zone offense as a main culprit. When taking both the Carmel and Stevenson games, the Scouts had 16 total possessions. Six of those ended up in the red zone. Of those six, the Scouts have scored two touchdowns for a RZ TD percentage of 33%. Of the 32 teams in the NFL, the team ranked 32nd in RZ percentage is New Orleans. The Saints (2-2 on the season) are equal to the Scouts at 33%.
Another indicator of a team’s flaws is field position. In the Scouts’ two losses, their average starting field position is their own 28-yard line (27.8 to be exact). Their opponent’s starting field position averages at the 26-yard line (25.6 to be exact). Not much variance there, yet it favors the Scouts. Against Stevenson, the Patriots had the advantage, starting each drive at the 32.4 yard line vs 28.2 for the Scouts. Lake Forest holds the possession advantage with 16 combined from the Carmel and Stevenson games vs. 13 for the Corsairs and Patriots. Why the struggles in those games? Let’s look at explosive plays (run plays of 10+ yards; pass plays of 20+ yards). Against the Corsairs and Patriots, the Scouts have allowed eight runs of 10 or more yards and one pass play of 20+ (vs. Carmel). Lake Forest, on the other hand, has gotten six rushes of 10+ and two pass plays of 20+. Again, not much variance. When the explosive plays are additives to broken play conversions (Stevenson had several of these Friday night) and untimely penalties (on third down, keeping drives alive), there are your statistical and anecdotal symptoms for defeats.
Then the question becomes what’s fixable and what’s irreparable? Coaches have to believe all problems are correctable. Last year, when the offense could barely get first downs, Coach Spagnoli would say every week about amending errors and “cleaning things up.” But anyone who watched the games knew there was no redeeming that offense. That unit could not score points and there was no path forward. The problems with this year’s units are more in the category of reformable due to better personnel, experience and quarterback play. We caught a glimpse of a path forward for explosive plays with the production of senior Torian James and late, that of junior Bink Hartline. Hartline showed he can get open and run past defenders on a few routes on the Scouts final drive that stalled out near the goal line. In-season player development is the best way to overcome deficiencies. Lake Forest certainly has the numbers in the junior class and a handful of promising sophomore call ups now on the roster. Having good players return from injury is another means to curing ills. If cleared at some point in October, junior Nate Williams will provide a boost to the defense and return game. Members of secondary in particular struggled vs Stevenson. Starting three first-year starters takes its toll against better teams. It’s also all together possible what we’ve seen through six games may be who the Scouts are in 2023. A good team that has holes (a description that fits 75% of playoff teams in the state). They’ve got three more regular season games to find out what’s fixable and what’s not.
Watching on replay the penalties from Friday night, I’m more convinced they were bad calls. The one in the second quarter on junior linebacker Nick Angelos (roughing the passer) was a clean hit on the quarterback and Angelos employed the proper technique (low-to-high). In the fourth quarter, the officials threw a penalty on junior Nicholas Nassar for a leading with the helmet on a sideline tackle of a running back. An equally terrible call, more so on Nassar as I’ve rarely seen calls on defensive players hitting running backs in bounds (stationary quarterbacks get the benefit of the doubt on calls at all levels of football). I was standing right there and saw the entire play unfold. I asked the official what the penalty was and he told me “he led with the helmet.” Using the helmet as the primary means to make a tackle has no place in football. But that’s not what happened with that play. Nassar made first contact with Stevenson quarterback Liam Crawley with his right shoulder (nearest shoulder, as he is coached). His head, and helmet, was behind Crawley, not in front. It was a clean, legal hit. After the referee flew the flag (late), the officials gathered to confer. They did not reverse the call, which would have been the correct move. Nassar deserves acknowledgement internally for a hustle play and tackle although he won’t receive it on the official scoresheet.
Another weekend in the North Suburban Conference, another overtime loss for Libertyville. This time, Lake Zurich outlasted the Wildcats, winning 29-28 Friday night in Lake Zurich. The game concluded regulation time knotted up at 22. After the Bears went ahead 29-22 in overtime, the Wildcats responded with a touchdown and elected to go for two and the win. Libertyville ran an iteration of the “swinging gate” extra point it frequently runs after touchdowns. Against the Bears, needing two points for the win, it appeared the Wildcats completed a broken play for the conversion, but the officials ruled the play an illegal forward pass. That’s two losses in overtime this year for Libertyville, who now sit at 3-3 overall, 1-3 in the NSC. After Week 6, the Scouts now share second place in the NSC with Lake Zurich. Friday at LZ in the Bears Den should be a heckuva good time. Pack some extra fall clothing. It’s gonna be chilly.
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