Scout Shorts: Warren Loss, Elimination Game Friday vs. Mundelein
Happy Monday everyone. Thoughts on Week 8 and early look at Friday do or die match up with Mundelein.
Losses come in many different forms. Week 2 vs Carmel left players/coaches chafed at the missed opportunity. Exasperation came after Stevenson; shock from Lake Zurich. The proper emotion after Warren is one of acceptance. Not over losing, but over what the loss means for the trajectory of the 2023 season. If the goal is the playoffs, and that’s the goal every season, the mission of this week is crystal clear: Now we know what we have to do. We have to win or we go home. Questions anyone? OK, Let’s get to work.
Warren scored on its first three drives Friday night. By the time the Blue Devils scored their second touchdown with 2:39 left in the first quarter, they had ran 12 offensive plays, totaling 127 yards of offense. Trailing 14-0, Lake Forest had run three plays totaling zero yards. Falling into first quarter deficits has been a recurring theme throughout the Scouts three-game losing streak. In the Scouts’ other loss, to Carmel in Week 2, they gave up an opening-drive touchdown. We aren’t privy to the outcome of the pre-game coin flip—and what team gains first-choice leverage––but starting on defense has not been a favorable strategy.
We are only six weeks removed from a 1-0 team, flying high after a decisive win over Lakes, that led Carmel 10-6 and had them pinned at its two-yard line late in the third quarter. Many predict Carmel, ranked 3rd in its class the latest AP poll, as a potential state championship game-bound team in Class 5A. What’s happened to this Scouts team since then?
Three things: injuries, schedule and regression. Losing junior Nate Williams, arguably the most complete football player on this year’s team, can’t be overstated. Would Williams have made a difference in the Stevenson game? Absolutely. Whether it be in on defense, in the return game or as a skill weapon on offense, Williams’ versatility and overall competitive magnetism would have been a force multiplier in that game. Lake Zurich, the Scouts still lose. Against Warren…would he have tackled Warren running back Aaron Stewart on the game’s first play? Would there have been a field flipping punt return generated by Williams at some point? Or an interception? We’ll never know but Williams, injured in the Carmel game, possesses the athletic dynamism to make such plays. The knee-jerk reaction to such claims is to scoff and say, ‘come on! He’s just one player.’ Yes and football is not basketball. But when we see the struggles the past three weeks in varying degrees of all units––offense, defense and special teams, a unit that was downright awful vs Warren––it heightens the gravity of the loss of a player of Williams’ all-purpose talents.
If mentioning Williams, we can’t forget Ryan Hippel. As I wrote about over the summer, Hippel entered camp in great shape and looked to be an impact skill player this season. But Hippel injured his shoulder in a practice between the Lakes and Carmel games. He hasn’t returned. How much better would the offense be in the past three weeks with Hippel at the ‘H’ or ‘Z’ positions? His speed allowed for play calls to stretch the field horizontally and vertically, a facet missing from the offense. There’s no question the offense would be more productive with Hippel out there.
I wrote a few weeks ago about the Scouts struggles in the red zone. When a team doesn’t score for two straight games, that statistic won’t improve. After the Stevenson game, Lake Forest’s red zone touchdown percentage in its losses through Week 6 sat at 33%. The past two weeks, the Scouts had three RZ possessions, none yielding touchdowns. In four losses, the Scouts are 2-of-9 inside the 20 yard line for a 22% touchdown percentage. Since there is no statistical database for prep football to compare, we’ll use the NFL. After seven weeks of the NFL season, Pittsburgh has the lowest red zone scoring percentage at 28.57%.
The two sequences in the first half against Warren encapsulates the Scouts’ RZ issues. Trailing 14-0, Lake Forest took over on its 29-yard line with 2:31 left in the first quarter. Aided by a pass interference call and an explosive Marty Hippel run, the Scouts had the ball on the Warren 11-yard line. The next three plays yielded one yard (Hippel run), incomplete pass and minus three yards (Hippel run). A missed field goal wasted the possession but a combination of poor execution and lack of imaginative play calling (a bubble route to Hippel? Get him the ball in space, I like his chances to find the end zone) bogged down the Scouts again. After yielding a touchdown, the offense took over and again moved the ball. Junior Charlie Markee caught two balls totaling 52 yards and Lake Forest was in the red zone yet again, setting up a first and goal at the Warren 5-yard line. Here were the next three plays: incomplete pass (tried to hit the tight end on a corner route, but he was covered), a keeper from quarterback Danny Van Camp for three yards, no gain run by Graham Garrigan. With just seconds left in the half, the Scouts needed one play to get in the end zone, go into halftime with momentum knowing they got the ball to start the second half. But Garrigan was stuffed at the one yard line. It appeared DVC could have pulled the ball and ran into the end zone untouched but I don’t know if that was a read play or not.
The first half stats were encouraging: 145 total yards averaging six yards per play. Four explosive plays in the run (10 yards or more) and pass (20 yards or more) games. But again, if the data yields no points, they are just decorative numbers and highlights for a player’s Hudl film.
I don’t typically criticize in-game coaching decisions in this space. As fans or media members, we don’t have access to all of the materials. There’s a lot that goes into clock management and other operational decision-making by a head coach or coordinator. There are also times when a coach throws out pre-determined conclusions and strictly goes with his gut. We are not faced with those pressures in real time. But one decision Friday night is a head scratcher and worth a mention (and one I’m going to ask Coach Spagnoli about this week). Midway through the third quarter, the Scouts got the ball on the Warren 39-yard line trailing 21-0. Three plays yielded three yards. The Scouts elected to punt and the Blue Devils started the ensuing drive at their own 27. Down three scores, the Scouts gave the ball back to Warren rather than try a fourth-and-7 play. It’s hard to come up with a scenario that favored punting and gaining nine yards of field position rather than take your chances on fourth down. Warren eventually punted the ball back to the Scouts but burned five minutes of clock before doing so. Lake Forest had its back up quarterback, Karl Nagel, in the game (DVC left the game during the opening drive of the second half with an apparent finger injury and did not return). Factoring in that circumstance and the margin of deficit, wouldn’t that make a coach less risk averse? I mean, what do you have to lose at that point? Outcome bias is always on the side of the spectator but I think most of us were first-guessing that decision Friday night.
Much more on Mundelein as we roll into the week, but this should be an opponent the Scouts can handle. After a 4-0 start, Mundelein has lost four in a row by an average margin of just under 28 points. The Mustangs have not made the playoffs in almost 20 years and for them, a win Friday night would be program-defining as much as season-continuing. They will be desperate; so are the Scouts. But I don’t think the Scouts should play with desperation. They need to be anti-fragile, as Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman described his Irish team’s mental make up leading up to the USC game. Play loose, fast, hard and together. And score touchdowns.
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